Category: Sports

Your midday sports snack.

Toast points

• Canada’s outdoor showdown with the United States at the world juniors in Buffalo is officially a go. Tournament organizers told the Associated Press that tomorrow afternoon’s group stage game will indeed be played at New Era Field, home of the NFL Bills, despite forecasted temperatures of -6C to -9C. Canada improved to 2-0 at the under-20 championship last night with a 6-0 shutout of Slovakia. The U.S. is 1-0 and plays Slovakia tonight at 8 p.m. ET.

• Former Hurricanes forward Zach Boychuk has been added to Canada’s roster for the remainder of the Spengler Cup. He and his new teammates, each of them a candidate for Canada’s Olympic team, will attempt this afternoon to win the second of their two round robin games in Switzerland. Puck drop against the host club, HC Davos (1-0), is at 2:15 p.m. ET. If Canada (1-0) wins, it will bypass tomorrow’s quarterfinal round and advance straight to the semifinals on Saturday.

• The Vegas Golden Knights set a record for the longest points streak by a team in its inaugural season with a 4-1 win last night over Anaheim. The Knights have earned a point in 10 straight games (9-0-1) to better the mark set by the 1993-94 Florida Panthers (5-0-4). Goalie Malcolm Subban, who was claimed on waivers from Boston just before the season started, is now 9-2-0 with a 2.18 goals against average.

• The NFL playoff scenarios are pretty straightforward for the final week of the regular season. Six of the eight division titles have been wrapped up, three of the four first-round byes are spoken for, and only three teams remain alive that can sneak into a wild-card spot if a team ahead of them falters. The NFL rearranged the schedule this week to make sure all the teams competing for the same slots were playing at the same time to prevent any games from being uncompetitive.

In the AFC, New England (12-3) can claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the Jets, while Pittsburgh (12-3) needs a win over Cleveland and a Patriots loss to take the No. 1 seed for itself. Both teams play in the 1 p.m. ET time slot. Jacksonville (10-5) and Kansas City (9-6) will occupy the No. 3 and 4 seeds.

The AFC wild cards are easy if the current holders, Baltimore (9-6) and Tenneessee (8-7), win their games. The L.A. Chargers (8-7) and Buffalo (8-7) need to win and need various combinations of losses or ties from the other teams in the wild-card chase. All these games will be played at 4:25 p.m.

In the NFC, Philadelphia (13-2) is locked in as the top seed, but Minnesota (12-3) needs to beat Chicago to clinch No. 2 (although the Vikings can lose and keep the No. 2 seed if the Rams lose and Carolina and New Orleans both win). Carolina (11-4) is the only other team that can occupy the No. 2 seed, which will happen if it beats Atlanta and New Orleans, Minnesota and the Rams all lose.

The Rams will host a wild-card round game regardless of their outcome on Sunday and the Panthers have at least a wild-card spot locked up regardless of their game. The Saints are the AFC South champion with a win; the Panthers can grab that title with a win and a Saints loss.

Atlanta can still claim a wild card if it wins or Seattle loses, while the Seahawks take the spot with a win and a Falcons loss. See the TV listings below for the full slate of games available on CTV and TSN.

• This Sunday — New Year’s Eve — is the 50th anniversary of the Ice Bowl, Green Bay’s 21-17 home victory over Dallas in an NFL Championship Game played with a windchill of -44C. Packers QB Bart Starr scored the winning touchdown on a one-yard sneak with 13 seconds left, validating Vince Lombardi’s call to eschew a potential game-tying field goal attempt. “You can’t say I’m always without compassion,” Lombardi said with a smile after the game. Two weeks later, the Packers braved the warmth of a Miami winter to beat Oakland 33-14 in Super Bowl II.

Nutritional analysis

Bryan Little became the career leader in games played for the Winnipeg/Atlanta franchise last night when he played in his 710th game. Little — who had been tied with Chris Thorburn for the franchise lead — Tobias Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien and Blake Wheeler are the only Jets left on the current roster who skated as Thrashers.

Little is also only the third current player who is the active and career leader in games played for his team, joining the Canucks’ Henrik Sedin and the Wild’s Mikko Koivu. You also count the seven players who lead Vegas on both lists, with their 35 games played.

Below are charts showing the active and career leaders for all 31 NHL franchises as of Wednesday’s games.

Photos of the day

For the final Hot Buttered Post of 2017, we bring you 17 of this year’s most aesthetically pleasing photos.

At nationalpost.com

• In the years since Michael Lewis published Moneyball in 2003, Billy Beane’s approach to turning the Oakland A’s into a playoff team has proved to be a exemplar of data-driven decision making in sports. So why are coaches, executives and fans still warring over analytics? Like Beane’s A’s, plenty of front offices have used numbers to try to find a competitive advantage, writes Scott Stinson, but no success story has stopped the Todd McLellans of the world from snarking about “nerds.”

• If you live in the Golden Horseshoe and haven’t trekked down to Buffalo for the world juniors … well, you’re hardly alone. Early attendance at this year’s tournament has been dismal, reports Michael Traikos, even for games involving the U.S. and the team from just across the border. Whether it’s a matter of price (the cheapest ticket for Canada-Slovakia went for US$30) or fatigue (two of the past three world juniors were played in Toronto and Montreal), it’s a bad look for an event that has long catered itself almost exclusively to Canadians.

TV this weekend

All times Eastern

Thursday

2 p.m. Hockey: Spengler Cup, Canada vs. HC Davos TSN2
2 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Switzerland vs. Russia TSN3,5
3 p.m. Soccer: Premier League, Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal SN World
4 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Czech Republic vs. Sweden TSN1,4,5
4:30 p.m. NCAA Football: Camping World Bowl, Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State TSN3
7:30 p.m. NHL
— Boston at Washington SN 360, Sportsnet, TVAS
— Montreal at Tampa Bay TSN2, RDS
8 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Slovakia vs. U.S. TSN1,4,5
8 p.m. NBA
— Houston at Boston SN One
— Minnesota at Milwaukee NBATV
9 p.m. NHL: Toronto at Arizona SN Ontario
9 p.m. NCAA Football
— Alamo Bowl, Stanford vs. TCU TSN3
— Holiday Bowl, Washington State vs. Michigan State FOX
10 p.m. NHL: Chicago at Vancouver SN 360, Sportsnet
10:30 p.m. NHL: Calgary at San Jose SN West
10:30 p.m. NBA: Philadelphia at Portland SN One

Friday

9 a.m. Hockey: Spengler Cup, quarter-final TSN5
Noon Hockey: World junior, Belarus vs. Russia TSN3
2 p.m. Hockey: Spengler Cup, quarter-final TSN2
3 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Canada vs. U.S. TSN1,3-5
3 p.m. NCAA Football: Sun Bowl, NC State vs. Arizona State CBS
7:30 p.m. NBA: Atlanta at Toronto TSN2
7:30 p.m. NHL: Columbus at Ottawa TSN5, RDS
7:30 p.m. NHL: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay TVAS
8 p.m. NHL: NY Islanders at Winnipeg TSN3
8:30 p.m. NCAA Football: Cotton Bowl, USC vs. Ohio State TSN4 (joined in progress on TSN5)
9 p.m. NHL
— Toronto at Colorado SN Ontario
— Chicago at Edmonton SN One, Sportsnet
10 p.m. NHL: Calgary at Anaheim SN West
10 p.m. NBA: Phoenix at Sacramento NBATV
10:30 p.m. NBA: Charlotte at Golden State TSN2

Saturday

9 a.m. Hockey: Spengler Cup, semifinal TSN2
10 a.m. Soccer: Premier League
— Chelsea vs. Stoke Sportsnet
— Bournemouth vs. Everton TSN1
— Liverpool vs. Leicester TSN4
— Watford vs. Swansea TSN5
— Huddersfield vs. Burnley SN One
— Newcastle vs. Brighton SN World
Noon Hockey: World junior, Czech Republic vs. Belarus TSN1,4
Noon NCAA Football: TaxSlayer Bowl, Louisville vs. Mississippi State TSN3
Noon NCAA Basketball: North Carolina at Wake Forest CBS, TSN2
12:30 p.m. Soccer: Premier League, Manchester United vs. Southampton Sportsnet, SN One, NBC
12:30 p.m. NCAA Football: Liberty Bowl, Iowa State vs. Memphis ABC
2 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Sweden vs. Switzerland TSN5
2 p.m. Hockey: Spengler Cup, semifinal TSN2
2 p.m. NCAA Basketball: Florida State at Duke CBS
3:30 p.m. CHL: Moose Jaw at Brandon Sportsnet
4 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Finland vs. Slovakia TSN1,4,5
4 p.m. NCAA Football: Fiesta Bowl, Washington vs. Penn State TSN3
4 p.m. NCAA Basketball: Villanova at Butler CBS
7 p.m. NHL
— Montreal at Florida CBC, City, TVAS
— Boston at Ottawa Sportsnet
8 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Denmark vs. Canada TSN1,4,5
8 p.m. NCAA Football: Orange Bowl, Miami vs. Wisconsin TSN3
8 p.m. NBA: Cleveland at Utah SN One
8 p.m. MMA: UFC 219 prelims TSN2
9 p.m. NBA: Philadelphia at Denver NBATV
10 p.m. NHL: Los Angeles at Vancouver CBC, Sportsnet

Sunday

6 a.m. Hockey: Spengler Cup, final TSN1,4,5
7 a.m. Soccer: Premier League, Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City TSN2
11:30 a.m. Soccer: Premier League, West Brom vs. Arsenal TSN2
Noon Hockey: World junior, Switzerland vs. Czech Republic TSN1,3
1 p.m. NFL:
— Chicago at Minnesota CTV (Manitoba and west), FOX (regional)
— NY Jets at New England CTV (Ontario and east), CBS (regional), RDS
— Green Bay at Detroit TSN4,5, FOX (regional)
— Cleveland at Pittsburgh CBS (regional)
— Washington at NY Giants FOX (regional)
— Dallas at Philadelphia FOX (regional)
3:30 p.m. NHL: Toronto at Vegas Sportsnet, SN One, TVAS
4 p.m. Hockey: World junior, U.S. vs. Finland TSN1,3
4:25 p.m. NFL:
— Arizona at Seattle CTV (Sask., and west), FOX (regional)
— Buffalo at Miami CTV (Ontario and Quebec), CBS (regional)
— Carolina at Atlanta CTV (Winnipeg, Ottawa), CTV Two (Atlantic), FOX (regional)
— Cincinnati at Baltimore TSN4,5, CBS (regional)
— Oakland at LA Chargers CBS (regional)
— Kansas City at Denver CBS (regional)
6 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Slovakia vs. Denmark TSN2
7 p.m. NHL: Winnipeg at Edmonton Sportsnet, SN One
8 p.m. Hockey: World junior, Russia vs. Sweden TSN1,3-5
8 p.m. NBA: Philadelphia at Phoenix NBATV
9 p.m. NHL: Chicago at Calgary SN 360

Monday (New Year’s Day)

7:30 a.m. Soccer: Premier League, Brighton vs. Bournemouth SN World
10 a.m. Soccer: Premier League
— Burnley vs. Liverpool TSN4
— Stoke vs. Newcastle TSN5
— Leicester vs. Huddersfield SN World
12:30 p.m. Soccer: Premier League, Everton vs. Manchester United SN World
Noon NCAA Football: Outback Bowl, Michigan vs. South Carolina TSN2
12:30 p.m. NCAA Football: Peach Bowl, Central Florida vs. Auburn TSN1,4,5
1 p.m. NHL: NY Rangers at Buffalo Sportsnet, NBC, TVAS
1 p.m. NCAA Football: Citrus Bowl, Notre Dame vs. LSU ABC
5 p.m. NCAA Football: Rose Bowl (national semifinal), Georgia vs. Oklahoma TSN1,3-5
7:30 p.m. NBA: Milwaukee at Toronto Sportsnet, SN One
8:45 p.m. NCAA Football: Sugar Bowl (national semifinal), Alabama vs. Clemson TSN1,3-5

Hot Buttered Post is served Monday through Thursday. It will return Jan. 2.

The Major League Baseball draft that was the basis for the book Moneyball took place in 2002. The book itself was published the following year, and a year after that came the paperback edition, in which author Michael Lewis wrote an afterword that focused on the surprising reaction it had touched off.

The examination of how the Oakland A’s were challenging baseball orthodoxy had been blasted by many writers, executives and players, from Joe Morgan to Pat Gillick, and a debate of sorts ensued. “It wasn’t as interesting as a real debate,” Lewis wrote, “in that there was no chance for an exchange of ideas. It was more like a religious war — or like the endless, fruitless dispute between creationists and evolutionary theorists.”

Much like a religious war, that debate has proved to be stubborn and intractable.

The last 15 years have included many moments in which the arguments over the use of analytics in sports decision-making should have been put to rest. Every kind of sports organization has come to understand the importance of data analysis when making front-office decisions, and while some have embraced it far more than others, there are enough examples of the successful application of the Moneyball effect — using data to create a competitive advantage — that the debate, such as it is, ought to be over.

Spoiler alert: it isn’t. Rarely does a week go by when someone doesn’t take a shot at analytics, or when some kind of development with a team isn’t seen as an indictment — or an exoneration — of its reliance on data.

Edmonton Oilers coach Todd McLellan recently defended defenceman Kris Russell, who has become something of an avatar for the stats-versus-scouts debate, by saying: “I know all the analytics nerds out there find ways to run him into the ground, but he means a lot to our team.” Having successfully deployed the nerd jab — it’s either that or mention the word “computer” derisively — McLellan said his players all understood Russell’s importance. “So analytics that if you want,” he said. Bam.

McLellan has long been a data skeptic — “the best analytics is a set of eyeballs,” he has said — and he at least has a like-minded general manager in Peter Chiarelli, who among other things has traded Taylor Hall and acquired Milan Lucic, both moves that set off the analytics-community equivalent of a bomb-shelter klaxon. Elsewhere, the Arizona Coyotes and Florida Panthers both fired coaches in the past year who were not on board with data-driven plans.

In the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers split with former GM Sam Hinkie when ownership lost patience with his much-ballyhooed, analytics-inspired rebuilding “process,” only to see much of Hinkie’s mad-scientist routine finally pay off this season, long after he left. And in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns fired Sashi Brown, one of their statistics-oriented architects, in the midst of a winless season. It’s unclear what will happen to Paul DePodesta, the former baseball executive who was brought in to Moneyball the crap out of the Browns — DePodesta was one of the key characters in that Oakland A’s story 15 years ago — now that the football team has installed John Dorsey, a football guy, as general manager.

These things happen, a team hiring or firing someone or just a snarky aside from a coach or commentator — TSN’s Pierre McGuire noted that “analytics don’t measure heart, courage or desire” when asked about Russell — and it’s like a spark on the smouldering embers of the debate. Suddenly everyone is having the same arguments again.

The puzzle in all of this is that there ought to be plenty of common ground for both sides to hammer out a permanent detente. One illustration of how sports has embraced numbers comes annually at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston. Co-founded more than a decade ago by Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, it has grown from 100 or so people on the MIT Sloan campus to more than 4,000 attendees at a large Boston conference centre. Last year representatives from more than 130 pro sports team made the trek to Nerdstock. The buy-in is obvious.

One of the curious things about Sloan, though, is that even with all the true believers in attendance, there is always a lot of talk about missionary work: how to get the wider sports audience — and those in the industry — to understand what it is they are doing. Speaker after speaker will stress that they never claim to have all the answers and that there is absolutely a role in sports for things like traditional scouting, and the point is made that all analytics types are trying to do is provide more information to help coaches and executives make important decisions. After all, who wouldn’t want more information?

Most organizations concede this point, although they all place different weights on the information they get from data analysis, scouts, and in-person research. To the extent that there is a debate in front offices, it’s about finding the right mix.

Brian Burke, the Calgary Flames president who has taken his share of shots at nerds over the years, will say in one breath that the Flames have “the best analytics guy in the business” and in the next that he values that information less than that gleaned from scouts and from talking to prospective players. Morey, meanwhile, has said that he wouldn’t interview any potential draft picks if he could get away with it, so little faith does he have in the value of that process. (He does them because he knows he will be fired if he drafts someone he has never met and then that player, for example, immediately quits and declares painting his true love.)

But if the argument over analytics is just one of degrees, why does it still engender such ill will?

I think it goes back to that thing about religion. Put another way, as much as there is acceptance now of the value of data, often what that data says is something that pushes back against deeply held beliefs. In baseball, it can tell you that a pitcher with a 15-6 record was still objectively worse than someone who went 8-10. It basketball, it can tell you that someone who averages a team-leading 23.2 points per game is much less valuable than the teammate who scores 15.3 points and tries on defence. And in hockey it can tell you that the defenceman who dives in front of a lot of shots and works really hard nevertheless has a negative impact on his team’s performance.

Sometimes these are things that coaches and managers — and fans, definitely a lot of fans — just do not want to be told. I once had a long discussion with a former major leaguer-turned-analyst about how pitching wins were affected by so much not in a pitcher’s control, especially in today’s game where bullpens have such a heavy workload. “Give me the guy who wins,” he said at the end. It was like an atheist talking to a priest.

With all those ingrained beliefs still out there, it doesn’t take much for new-school thinking to be tossed aside. One of the underpinnings of the statistics movement is the importance of sample size: don’t make decisions based on a small data set, because they are bound to be affected by randomness and luck.

But humans love to believe in small numbers. Analytics might say that a given team is doing all the right things to win in the long term, but tell that to a coach in the middle of a losing streak: he will find little consolation in a run of bad luck. There’s a conflict there between sports and math that might never be truly resolved. It says a team can never fully account for randomness, and so is better off focusing on the process of team-building.

They give out the trophies, though, for results.

• Email: sstinson@postmedia.com | Twitter: @scott_stinson

BUFFALO — When he left Sweden earlier this month, Elias Pettersson was leading the SHL with 35 points in 26 games. He’s scoring at a rate unseen since the days of Peter Forsberg and Markus Naslund.

And yet, Team Sweden head coach Tomas Monten wasn’t sure that the Vancouver Canucks prospect would be able to replicate that offensive production at the world juniors.

“It’s going to be tougher,” Monten said. “He’s not going to put up points like that because it’s a different ice surface and different game, for sure. You have less time with the puck. But for sure he has a lot of confidence. He’ll put in a puck or two.”

On Tuesday, Pettersson did just that by scoring a goal and picking up an assist in a 6-1 win against Belarus. It was an impressive game for the fifth-overall pick in the 2017 NHL draft. But for anyone who has watched him play this year, it was also fairly ordinary.

“He can score, he can make plays. Give him the puck and he can do great things,” said defenceman Rasmus Dahlin, who had two assists.

Sweden has a lot of players like that. While Belarus is not a great litmus test, it’s difficult to imagine that many teams will be able to keep the Swedes off the scoresheet. From Alex Nylander, who last year tied for first in tournament scoring, to Lias Andersson (seventh overall) and Erik Brannstrom (15th overall), Sweden is overflowing with highly skilled players who have no trouble finding the back of the net.

“Dangerous,” said Dahlin, the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. “We have so many talented forwards. Give them the puck and I will protect the goalie.”

Perhaps therein lies the challenge for a team like Sweden. While the team has the offensive firepower to score its way out of trouble, playing a balanced game will determine whether the Swedes — who lost 5-2 to Canada in last year’s semi-final and finished fourth overall — can win their first gold medal since 2012.

“I need to choose more when I can go,” Dahlin said. “I want to be a two-way D.”

***

The Toronto Maple Leafs allowed William Nylander to return to Sweden after selecting him with the eighth-overall pick in 2014. Two years later, the team decided to keep Timothy Liljegren, this year’s 17th overall pick, in the American Hockey League.

It was a decision that Monten, the Swedish coach, said has benefited the defenceman’s defensive game.

“I think he’s developed a lot and made the right call to stay here and play for the Marlies,” Monten said. “He could always play with the puck and had his offensive skills, but I think he’s developed the other 80 per cent of his game, which is the defensive part. He plays with a better gap, has a better stick and commits to the physical part of the game. That’s helped him a lot.”

***

Unlike several of his teammates, Dillon Dube has not worn the ‘C’ during his four years with the Kelowna Rockets. But he was still an easy choice to be named Canada’s captain.

For one, the 19-year-old has the experience of playing in last year’s tournament. And more importantly, the speedy and versatile Dube, who is a second-round pick of the Calgary Flames, embodies the type of game that head coach Dominique Ducharme wants the entire team to play.

“Being the captain, one part of it is the way he plays and his personality,” Ducharme said. “His speed, he can be bringing a lot of energy, he can be playing in many different situations. Yeah, he defines our team.”

Dube, who is playing on one of the top lines with Sam Steel and Jordan Kyrou, said the team’s main strength is the unselfishness of the players.

“Every guy is worried about winning,” Dube said. “If you put your egos aside you can accomplish great things. That’s the biggest thing for us. You know every single guy’s a leader. So you know they can accept that and move on.“

***

Colton Point, who was to start in net against Slovakia on Wednesday night, unexpectedly beat out Memorial Cup-winning goalie Michael DiPietro for a spot on the team thanks to a breakthrough year with Colgate University. But according to his teammates, it’s his outgoing personality that made him the perfect choice to be a backup goalie.

“I don’t know if you guys remember Connor Ingram, but he reminds me a lot of him,” Dube said of last year’s backup goalie, who endeared himself to reporters with his quirky personality. “I know you guys liked him a lot. It’s great. He’s a character guy. I love spending time with him a lot.”

Point, a fifth-round pick of the Dallas Stars, has a 1.90 goals-against average and .938 save percentage in 16 games.

“We knew he was a good goalie, for sure,” Ducharme said. “Obviously we follow him. But to see him and his presence in net, he’s a smart kid also and he’s good at adjusting. We’re confident with him.”

***

Adam Ruzicka, who is tied for fifth with 20 goals in the Ontario Hockey League this season, is five away from the number he scored as a rookie. A big reason for the jump has to do with his comfort level.

“It’s my second year,” said the Slovakian-born Ruzicka, who is a fourth-round pick of the Calgary Flames. “My English is getting better. The North American style is different from Europe right? The first year was a little difficult for me, so I had to catch up. It’s hard. It’s not easy.”

With 39 points in 34 games, the 6-foot-4 Ruzicka is looking like he might be a steal. The Flames certainly think so, who have kept in constant contact with the late-blooming star.

“We were communicating almost after every game. They were checking in with me and communicating with me,” Ruzicka said. “They’re a great organization and they wish me luck. I’m feeling pretty good.”

• Email: mtraikos@postmedia.com | Twitter: @Michael_Traikos