After a tumultuous election campaign filled with scandal and surprises, the French public has begun to vote on whether a pro-European Union centrist or an euroskeptic, anti-immigration far-rightist will lead them for the next five years.
Opinion polls predict they will pick Emmanuel Macron, a 39-year-old ex-economy minister who wants to bridge the left-right divide, seeing off the challenge from National Front leader Marine Le Pen.
A Macron victory would further stem the tide of nativist, anti-globalization voting outcomes like those that will see Britain quit the EU and which ushered in Donald Trump as U.S. president.
A woman leaves a voting booth at a polling station in Bron, France, on Sunday. (Emmanuel Foudrot/Reuters)
Macron, who wants to deregulate the economy and deepen EU integration, is set to win the head-to-head with between 61.5 and 63 per cent of the vote, according to the last opinion polls on Friday.
Should an upset occur and Le Pen win, the very future of the EU could be on the line given her desire to close borders, dump the euro currency, and tear up trade treaties.
Even in defeat, her vote is likely to be about twice what her party scored the last time it reached the presidential second round in 2002, demonstrating the scale of voter disaffection with mainstream politics in France.
Le Pen waits to vote in Henin-Beaumont, France. (Sylvain Lefevre/Getty Images)
Midday turnout figures from the Interior Ministry said 28.23 per cent of voters had turned out so far — the lowest at this stage of the day since the 2002 presidential poll, when it was 26.19 per cent. Turnouts at midday in 2012 and 2007 were 30.66 per cent and 34.11 per cent respectively.
A poll on Friday had predicted a final turnout of 75 per cent this time. The eventual turnouts in 2002, 2007 and 2012 were all above 80 per cent.
Macron shakes hands with well-wishers as he leaves the polling station after casting his ballot in Le Touquet, France, Sunday. (Christophe Ena/Associated Press)
Pollsters see abstentions as likely to be highest among left-wing voters who feel disenfranchised by the second-round choice, but it is unclear what a high or low turnout could mean for the outcome.
One additional unknown is the level of blank votes and spoiled ballots.
Nevertheless, voter surveys forecasting the result proved accurate for the first round last month, which eliminated nine other candidates in a tight race.
Markets have risen in response to Macron’s widening lead over his rival after a bitter television debate on Wednesday.
“We increased our equity exposure and added some French stocks after the first round,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Geneva-based fund management firm Prime Partners. “The major political risk of a Le Pen victory appears to be disappearing.”
Benedictine Sisters of the Sainte-Cecile Abbey leave their monastery to vote at a polling station in Solesmes in northwestern France. (Jean-Francois Monier/AFP/Getty Images)
After a campaign in which favourites dropped out of the race one after the other, Le Pen is nevertheless closer to elected power than the far right has been in France since the Second World War
If opinion polls prove accurate and the country elects its youngest-ever president rather than its first female leader, Macron himself has said himself he expects no honeymoon period.
Close to 60 per cent of those who plan to vote for Macron say they will do so to stop Le Pen from being elected to lead the eurozone’s second-largest economy, rather than because they fully support the former banker turned politician.
“I don’t necessarily agree with either of the candidates,” psychotherapist Denise Dulliand, who was voting in Annecy in the mountainous southeast, told Reuters.
Vandalized election campaign posters for Macron and Le Pen are seen in Rennes, France, on Friday. (Damien Meyer/AFP/Getty Images)
“But I wanted to express my voice, to be able to say that I came, even if I am really not satisfied with what is happening in our country, and that I would like to see less stupidity, less money and more fraternity.”
More elections to come
The battle between mainstream and more radical policies in France will continue into parliamentary elections next month in which the new president will try to secure a majority in parliament. One poll this week suggested that was within reach for Macron.
Much will also depend on how the candidates score on Sunday.
Le Pen’s niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen, on Thursday told L’Opinion daily that winning 40 per cent of the vote would be “a huge victory” for the National Front.
Whoever wins will open a new chapter in French politics, after the major left- and right-wing parties — the Socialists and The Republicans — that have ruled France for decades both suffered humiliating defeats in the election’s first round.
The campaign was hit by yet another surprise on Friday night, just as the quiet period in which politicians are forbidden from commenting began. Macron’s team said a massive hack had dumped emails, documents and campaign-financing information online.
Exit polls will be published when voting ends at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET).
Police officers patrol in front of the Louvre Museum in Paris Sunday following an evacuation due to a security alert. (Christophe Archambault/AFP/Getty Images)
With security a prime concern More than 50,000 police officers were on duty on Sunday. A series of militant attacks in Paris, Nice and elsewhere in France have killed more than 230 people in recent years.
The courtyard of the Louvre Museum in Paris, where Macron is due to speak after the result, was briefly evacuated on Sunday after a suspect bag was found.