If a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity.

And for Premier Jason Kenney it must seem like a lifetime.

A year ago Kenney was celebrating a decisive electoral victory over the NDP after running on a campaign platform that could be summed up in three words: jobs, economy, pipelines.

A year later he is dealing with an unprecedented disaster that can be summed up in three words: pandemic, recession, debt.

Kenney must be looking back at April 16, 2019, with more than a little nostalgia.

The year began happily enough for him as he used his summer of repeal, among other things, to fulfil election promises scrapping the provincial carbon tax, cutting corporate taxes, reversing the NDP’s environmental strategy, and getting tough with the federal Liberal government as part of a ‘fight back’ strategy.

When the economy continued to sputter and jobs continued to disappear, Kenney maintained course.

He cut government spending, made plans to balance the budget, introduced business-friendly legislation, championed more private delivery of publicly funded health care, and set up a “fair deal” panel to explore how Alberta could have more control over provincial issues including a police force and pension plan.

He was doing pretty much what he had vowed to do during the election campaign. “Promise made, promise kept,” became his mantra.

Even when his popularity began to slip late last year after Albertans realized the cuts would be deeper than advertised, and thousands of civil service jobs would be lost, Kenney pushed ahead, using his “historic” one-million-vote election victory as both shield and weapon against his critics.

On February 27, he introduced a provincial budget with so many sunny predictions you needed sunglasses to get through it. Oil prices would stabilize at $58 USD a barrel. Employment would surge. The provincial deficit would be wiped out in two years. 

“There are signs that in 2020 we will turn a corner and see real economic growth return to the Alberta economy,” declared Finance Minister Travis Toews.

We turned a corner, all right. And got mugged in a dark alley by COVID-19 and OPEC+.

A week after the budget was tabled, Alberta recorded its first case of the novel coronavirus. Oil prices tumbled after Russia and Saudi Arabia got into a bitter fight over production.

A year ago Kenney was on top of the world. Today, he must feel like he’s been tossed into the pit.

‘Sharp downturn’

Kenney says this year’s budget deficit could hit an unprecedented $20 billion. Unemployment could reach 25 per cent. He predicts the price of Western Canadian Select oil could slump below zero later this month. 

A report from the Conference Board of Canada released Wednesday predicted Alberta’s economy will continue to lag behind any global recovery later this year.

“The provincial government is in a tight spot,” says the report. “It has, appropriately, been deploying fiscal stimulus to mitigate against the sharp downturn in economic activity. At the same time, it must grapple with the evaporation of billions in royalty revenues on which it depends heavily.”

Kenney is spending billions of dollars, all the while he’s losing billions of dollars. He’s investing $1.5 billion in the Keystone XL pipeline this year and putting up $6 billion in loan guarantees next year.

Ironically, Kenney is on track to become the biggest-borrowing, biggest-spending, most interventionist premier in Alberta history. For a free-market, free-enterprise, small-government conservative, this must be galling.

The pandemic and downturn are not Kenney’s fault but he has made things worse by picking a fight with doctors over compensation and billing practices that led to the Alberta Medical Association launching a $250-million lawsuit against his government last week.

His government gave itself a black eye by promising to maintain education funding and then days later cutting $128 million that triggered mass layoffs.

NDP Leader Rachel Notley, somebody who was premier during her own crisis — the Fort McMurray fire —  has some advice for Kenney:

“Albertans need to know that they can trust Jason Kenney, that he’s going to put his own agenda that was developed at a different time in a different place aside in order to come up with the best solutions for them,” says Notley. “That, I think, is evidenced by the doctor dispute and the education funding.”

Notley says she’s trying to work with the government during the crisis. In a private meeting with Kenney a month ago, she suggested he allow NDP members to sit on the government’s economic recovery council.

Kenney apparently didn’t laugh her out of the room. He simply didn’t respond. On Wednesday, though, his office sent me an email saying, in so many words, “no way.”

“The NDP, of course, is welcome to provide its suggestions via the Legislature Assembly or elsewhere,” said the premier’s office. “We have admittedly been disappointed that at times the NDP seems more interested in playing petty partisan politics.”

Both the NDP and UCP can be accused of playing partisan games.

That’s one thing that hasn’t changed in the past year.

This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please read this editor’s blog and our FAQ.

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