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NHL fans, meet Seattle: Could a 32nd franchise put an end to future lockouts?



You don’t have to be a Starbucks-drinking, grunge-listening, plaid-wearing Seattleite to love that the NHL looks like it’s headed to the state of Washington.

You just have to be a hockey fan. Or a fan of not living through another labour lockout.

That’s the biggest takeaway from Monday’s announcement that the city of Seattle will inject US$660 million to renovate KeyArena for NHL and NBA use in time for the 2020-21 season. For those with a CBA advent calendar, that’s right around the time that the current collective bargaining agreement could expire if the league or the Players’ Association take advantage of a 2019 option to opt out of the current agreement in 2020.

Convenient, isn’t it?

If there’s anything to pressure both sides into working towards a new collective bargaining agreement, it’s the added incentive of increased revenues and jobs that a new franchise will bring. Right off the top, the price of the expansion team is expected to cost more than the $500 million Vegas paid in 2016, a reflection that Forbes magazine acknowledged in its annual rankings on Tuesday, with overall team values rising 15 per cent (the average value is $594 million) from last year. Then there are the 23 new roster spots it creates for players who are currently out of the league.

It’s a win-win for owners, who each received $16 million from Vegas’ expansion fee, and the players. And ultimately, that’s good for hockey fans — even the ones living next to an empty NHL-size arena in Quebec City.

You can debate whether Seattle should get a hockey franchise before Quebec City or whether the league should expand when other markets, such as Arizona and Florida, are struggling to fill the building. But a 32nd team is coming. It’s just a matter of time.

When the league accepted expansion applications in 2016, the expectation was that two teams would be added: one from Vegas and another from Seattle. But Seattle, which didn’t have an arena deal in place, chose not to apply. Rather than award a franchise to Quebec City — the only other team that applied and a city that had a new arena — the league came up with an excuse about geographical imbalance and instead added only one team.

Since then, two things have happened: Seattle’s ownership now includes former MLSE president and CEO Tim Leiweke, Hollywood producer Jerry Bruckheimer and billion-dollar investment banker David Bonderman — a heavyweight group that has the resources and know-how to put a bid together. And more importantly, they have an arena being built.

Add in the fact Seattle would give balance to a league where there are 16 teams in the Eastern Conference and only 15 in the West, and it’s practically a done deal that the NHL will be expanding to 32 teams in the near future. The board of governors are meeting in Florida on Thursday and Friday this week, but an official announcement could come as early as July.

The only question is whether the league will stop at 32? With team values rising — the 15 per cent increase in value, according to Forbes, was the largest rise in the past three years — and Houston and Kansas City also interested in purchasing franchises and Quebec City patiently waiting for someone to relocate, don’t be surprised if this becomes a 34-team league in the next 10 years.

After all, the gamble is paying off so far in Las Vegas. And when gambles start paying off, you’re more inclined to double down your bets.

Arena spotlight shifts to Calgary

With Seattle on its way to renovating its arena for the NHL, expect the heat to be turned up on the city of Calgary.

After all, it’s not necessary that the league expand to 32 teams. While the NHL does not plan on relocating any of its franchises, without a new rink in Calgary the team’s future in Alberta might not be secure.

“We believe in all of the places that we have franchises now,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said last month at the GM meetings in Montreal. “We think all of our markets are capable of supporting our clubs. We’re not looking to threaten markets, but there is a certain inevitability if a club needs a new arena to stay competitive, to stay viable and have stability, that if it can’t for whatever reason get a new facility, then at some point ownership has to look at what options it may have.

“It’s great to know that there are lots of places that are interested in having a franchise that don’t, but we’re not running around actively soliciting interest. We listen to whoever wants to come and talk to us, and we’re aware of the interest, but our preference is to have our franchises right where they are.”

Leaf players would be coveted in 2020

Pittsburgh lost a starting goalie. Nashville gave up a 40 goal-scorer. And Columbus parted ways with a player who would be the team’s top scorer today.

No question, the talent that was available in this year’s expansion draft was a huge reason why the Vegas Golden Knights have been able to start their inaugural season as one of the better teams in the NHL. But are teams prepared to give away more players again in a few years?

One team that could be affected more than others is the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team didn’t have to protect Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner or William Nylander when Vegas entered the league, but will have much tougher decisions to make in 2020.

Vegas shows path to instant legitimacy

You can thank (or blame) the Golden Knights if the NHL decides to expand to 32 teams. There might have been healthy skepticism that hockey could thrive in the Vegas desert, but the team’s immediate on-ice success has allowed the franchise to gain traction in a non-traditional market.

In the process, the Golden Knights have shone a light on just how deep the talent pool is in the league.

“The team drafted so many good players, but if you do it again for a 32nd or a 33rd team, it’s going to be a successful draft, too,” Golden Knights forward Jonathan Marchessault told Postmedia News in November. “Some guys who are in the AHL just never get a chance. The moment that we have the chance, we’re able to show that we are able to play in the NHL.”



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